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On this episode, we speak with Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research for Meyers Research LLC. As head of the Economics Department, Ali manages and analyzes the content for Zonda, provides data analytics, runs special research projects, and does presentations across the country on topics spanning both the housing market and the wider economy. Ali’s specialty is understanding millennials and their impact on the market.
Prior to joining the Meyers team, Ali headed macro, regional, and metro-level monthly economic reports at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Ali was also a researcher for both the Canadian and UK Parliaments. Hear Ali's data-driven analysis and indicators she uses to determine the state of the housing market:
Matt Rodak:
Welcome everyone to this episode of Real Estate Investing Unscripted. I'm your host, Matt Rodak, founder and CEO of Fund That Flip. Today we have a really special guest, Ali Wolf who is the Director of Economic Research at Meyers Research. I heard Ali give a keynote at a conference a few months back and I absolutely knew we had to get her on the show. She's got a ton of knowledge on all things related to the housing market, has a really incredible knack for deciphering data, and then boiling it down into ideas that we can all understand, grab onto, and take action on. So with that, welcome to the show, Ali.
Ali Wolf:
Awesome! Hi Matt, thank you for having me.
Matt Rodak:
Thanks so much for being here. Get us started with a little bit of background on who is Meyers Research. What do you guys do, how do you fit into this space, and specifically what are you doing there for the firm?
Ali Wolf:
Meyers Research has always been this housing consultancy firm based in California, but we have experts across the country that do advisory studies. So, they'll do feasibility, market expansion, and consumer targeting. We've had that part of our business in place for years through different iterations of the company. We also have a ZONDA iPad app, which has basically every piece of housing and economic data in one place. Why I phrased it like that to begin with is because recently in December we merged with Hanley Wood and Metro Study. Hanley Wood was a broader company. Metro Study was the direct competitor to Meyers Research and we both had our own special teams in the new home space. Now, we as the combined company, are the largest data provider for the housing market across the country.
My role specifically is to be our economist. I have been with the firm for over three years, came from a different consultancy firm before that. I worked for the UK and the Canadian Parliament prior to that. I really enjoy looking at policy as it relates to the housing market, but I also need to understand regional economics. I need to understand what happens to the housing market during recession. Knowing every single recession is different, what are good leading indicators? We don't like to just look at a couple and say, "Well, this one is saying this." I have a collection of 10 that I look at, and for each of them they have different trigger dates. That will be a point where you could then hypothetically forecast when the next recession is. We look at all of that and try to use that data to pinpoint recession. Finally, I like to look at millennials in the housing market. It's the largest living generation, they obviously can impact what happens to housing demand over the next 5-10 years.
Matt Rodak:
Meyers, Hanley Woods and Metro Study are on the consulting side, and then ZONDA Is your technology piece that people can use and do some self-serving studies. is that safe to say?
Ali Wolf:
Yeah, exactly. We created some platforms within ZONDA for some of our clients. They used to do a lot of manual work, and now with our program you can drop a pin, or you can circle things, and all of a sudden all the comps -- if you're looking to buy land -- all just pull up and give you different graphs. It helps solve a lot of problems and makes life easier for our clients.
Matt Rodak:
Easy is good. You hit on this a little bit in your introduction; one of the things I really loved about your presentation a few months back was how you cut through all of the noise that's out there related to what's happening with housing. Are we headed for another recession? If we are headed for another recession, how may or may not that impact the real estate market? If you are following the headlines, it's like, "Man, we should be getting out of the market." Prices are leveling off, inventories are increasing, no one's buying a house, mortgage rates are going up. Tell us what you're actually seeing from a data perspective and what's actually happening here in this somewhat chaotic point within where we're at in the cycle.
Ali Wolf:
Yes, you hit on a lot of things I want to hit on as well. Let's step back first. What I notice about the industry -- and you talked about headlines -- what I notice is a lot of people forget how amazing the first half of 2018 was. If you look at the stats for 2018 we were outpacing 2017 levels throughout most of the first half of the year. That's kind of shocking because 2017 was just this pinnacle year for housing. It was crazy. It was feverish. There were bidding wars. Your listeners may think I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist with this, but then there was one week in July, that two different articles came out the exact same week. One was from CNBC, "US Housing Market Looks Headed" -- I'm sorry, this is Bloomberg -- "US Housing Market Looks Headed For Its Biggest Slowdown in Years." CNBC says, "Southern California Home Sales Crash, A Warning Sign To The Nation." All of a sudden, everyone was saying things are good, and those come out and everyone's like, "What? We didn't see that coming. When did that happen?" I wanted to understand. We all read it. We in the industry, some people were feeling a slow down at that point. When you actually look at the CNBC article, it was talking about how sales under $500,000 in southern California we're slowing. Well yeah, because you can't find anything under $500,000.
Matt Rodak:
There's nothing to buy.
Ali Wolf:
No, there's nothing to buy, and if there is, it's crap. You don't want to buy it because maybe it's too far out or too old or whatever it is. I then wanted to understand what is that doing to us. We're reading that. If you're a different news organization, if you're Washington Post, if you're Wall Street Journal, you want to catch up. You don't want to say, "Oh, we didn't think there was a housing slowdown." So, then that feeds into more and more articles coming out. I started to use Google trends as my way to gauge what that did. Google trends basically allows you to look at what people are searching on the Internet. It showed that people were not searching 'housing-slow-down' before July of last year, and the same week that those articles came out, a spike. 'Housing-slow-down' became a very common thing to search, and it has not reset at all to the levels back before those headlines.
I was at the gym the other day and someone was like, "Oh, what do you do?"
I'm like, "Oh I'm an economist."
He's like, "I'm waiting for the housing market to crash."
"Why do you think the housing market's going to crash?"
He's like, "Well, I was reading in the news."
I do get a little bit nervous about the self-fulfilling prophecy and fear that comes from reading those because if you look at fourth quarter of last year, it was bad. It was ugly. There are not many markets that did better than 2017 for fourth quarter. It was a pretty substantial drop off in Seattle, or in L.A. you saw really big pullback. So far this year, the data that's available we have in ZONDA, the actively selling communities in the new homework market, 65% of them are now selling better than December. Which, you would you would expect -- we're starting to get into a new year, starting to get closer to the spring selling season. Even data from purchase mortgage applications are showing up 3% year over year. That's a weekly indicator. That's going to tell you exactly what demand is on the ground at any point of time. So, we are at least seeing a rebound in demand.
Matt Rodak:
That's an interesting statistic on the purchase mortgage apps -- that's year over year. You said 2018 was up over 2017 at least for the first half of the year, and now we're seeing 2019 over 2018 up 3% at least? We're in February but...
Ali Wolf:
Yes.
Matt Rodak:
Okay, so we're back onto a growth trajectory year over year, even though we had maybe a little bit of a cooling the last couple of months 2018.
Ali Wolf:
Correct. I don't think 2019 is going to be an amazing year, but I think we will see spring selling season start to tick up. As I talk to our clients, they're saying they're seeing increased traffic, they're seeing people coming out and searching. It does really match what I'm seeing in that national data for the purchase mortgages as well.
Matt Rodak:
It's really interesting, I think sentiment is a big thing in this market, how people are generally feeling. Even though we're 10 years past 2008, I don't think anybody wants to be the guy or gal that buys at the top of the market. Probably not a bad thing that we saw a little bit of a cooling, if you will, just to make sure that we're not getting ahead of ourselves. I think so anyways. Can't go up forever.
Ali Wolf:
Yeah, and you were hitting on some interesting points when you were talking about how the market's changing, inventory is increasing, and prices are leveling off. Those two things are so interesting, too, about how they're blasted out to the public and how the data actually looks. Because in some markets, months of supply -- that's how quickly will that supply be absorbed -- it was at one month of supply and now it's at 1.2. That's a 20% increase. That is a great statistic to put supplies up 20%, but in a lot of markets that hasn't solved the supply problem. You're still extremely under supplied, especially $500,000 and below across the country. It doesn't matter really what market you're in. Entry level price points are extremely under supplied. There's a little bit of a buildup on the move up and on the luxury side. We are seeing a little bit of oversupply in those spaces, but not where that young generation is going for, or where someone who is generally price conscious is going for with prices.
Zillow is able to break out the data by low priced tier, middle, and highest. For their lowest price tier, you could say that price appreciation is slowing, because in 2017 appreciation was up 13% for the bottom tier home prices and today it's up 11%. That's not to say we aren't seeing slowing appreciation, but I think that also needs to be put in context. Is it slowing from unsustainable levels? Is it slowing across every market? Is it slowing at different price points when maybe we are seeing a buildup and supply, and it makes sense that it would slow.
Matt Rodak:
Let's talk about that a little bit. I think everyone just assumes that because we're 'X'% over the peak of 2008 that we are due for a pullback. Ben Bernanke is famous for saying, "Bull markets don't die of old age." Something has to happen to cause them to pull back. What are the underlying fundamentals saying about general housing demand and household creation? The other statistic that I like is from 2008 to 2018, we under built somewhere around $6 million and $6.5 million, or 6 million to 6.5 million housing units, on a historical basis. Have we caught up with that supply? Is demand still outpacing supply? What are the underlying fundamentals, from a data perspective, that may make a case for continued, healthy, go-forward housing prices?
Ali Wolf:
I love that you talked about being under-built, and then are we now changing that equation. I have a graph that shows single family housing starts per 100 households. It basically shows from 2015 to where we are today. and you look at it and it's like a hockey stick. If you look at that time frame you're like, "Ooh, I think we're over building." There was a lot of the supply of coming online. Then you take that exact same graph and you zoom out. You can go to the 1970s, you can go to the 1990s, however far you want to go back. It shows how still extremely under built we are in today's marketplace. There obviously was some overbuilding during the last cycle, but it doesn't make up for population growth for Millennials aging, for a lot of the pinned-up demand, people that were underwater in their home, but only in the past three years started to get back to that place they could sell their home and move on.
So, I don't think we are at all in a place of balance of supply and demand. People often look at me with three heads when I say things like...in a way -- I'm not calling it a bubble -- but I am saying a definition of a bubble is a mismatch between supply and demand. During the last cycle we had so much supply, and during this cycle we have so little supply. We have so many people that want to be able to afford a home, but builders weren't catering to it because a lot of them went into the luxury market, or went into price points over the FHA loan limits, which make it hard for that next generation to come in.
From the economic point of view -- we just wrote a blog on this -- I think a lot of people put too much weight on the non-farm payrolls number that comes out. Everyone says, "Well, job growth is still there, so everything's fine." The reality is, recessions are actually called, and officially defined, when the economy is still adding jobs. It's usually a lagging indicator if you look at just job growth. Consumer confidence as well. Consumer confidence goes up, it peaks, and then it drops really quick. So, that's not going to be a good leading indicator either. There's different indicators that we would suggest looking at instead that could give you a broader picture of the economic landscape. I like to look at people that aren't concerned about losing their jobs, and I like took it full employment. Those are a couple of indicators that can give you a better gauge versus some of the lagging indicators that are more likely to get picked up by the mainstream media.
Matt Rodak:
That was going to be my next question. You said you've got 10 indicators that you look at. I don't know that we need all 10 of them, but people that are not concerned about losing their job, full employment, and what's one or two others that you think are something to hone in on? Then, where can people actually find this data? It's easy to get the Wall Street Journal where everyone else reports the new job creation, payroll growth and wage increases, but some of these other things are a little less successful, or maybe not. Where could we find this info?
Ali Wolf:
Sure. Full employment, this one's a little tricky because you need to set a gauge marker. I set full employment at 4.5%. Different economists can use different measures. You have to look at when an economy hits 4.5% and historically how long has that been before recession. People could get access to that easily; You can download the data from FRED. FRED is the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
A couple of other ones that I look at, that our accessible, are yield curves. I know everyone knows about it, but you need to look at the spread between the 10 year and the 2 year. That's available on the Federal Reserve's website, and you can pay attention to that. You don't want it to be zero. You don't want it to be inverted. Where it is today, we're not at that level, but that has historically been one of the best predictors of recession. Again, it's up to you. If you think this time's different, if maybe that's still a reliable indicator, but I think it's something that the market -- across the board and across the globe -- is looking at.
Also, the ISM manufacturing index, which is also available for free online. You can download the data and update it on a monthly basis. Generally when it drops below 50 that's a really good warning sign. It will give you enough of a headway to say, "Hey, things are turning." The only caution with that is sometimes it'll go below 50 and it'll be a false warning. That's why you can't really look at any of these indicators in isolation. It needs to be a collection of as many as you can get your hands on.
Matt Rodak:
So like an example of that would be the ISM manufacturing index drops below 50, but people really aren't yet worried about losing their jobs. Maybe it's just a bad month and the sentiment at the shop is still that things are fine, we just had kind of a down month.
Ali Wolf:
Yes, precisely.
Matt Rodak:
Oversimplifying it. Got It. I want to get into some other topics. You mentioned millennials and a few other things. Before we go there, talk to us a little bit on the correlation between recessions and actual housing prices. I've studied a little bit of this data and I'm by no means an economist, but I think everyone remembers the last recession, which was in a large part caused by housing. They were very correlated. Previous recessions, talk to us about that. Can we expect as severe a pullback in housing just because we're in a recession? Or, not?
Ali Wolf:
I pulled the data for the past 6 recessions. It breaks out into 2, 2 and 2. So, you have two more recessions where home prices go down double digits. You have two recessions where home prices correct single digits, and you have two recessions were home prices actually go up double digits. This is national data that I'm talking about. So if you're in Phoenix, Vegas, Orlando or markets that have a big concentration -- for example, during the.com, California got hit harder because of the concentration of tech jobs, California was more impacted. So, it does become more local when you look at what caused each of the given recessions, but broadly speaking, it's not an expected or guarantee that home prices are going to drop.
Matt Rodak:
I'm curious about when the next one happens, because of the fundamentals and the demand of housing, how much does home prices actually feel? I think there'll be an impact. I'm just not sure it's going to be a 2008 impact. Let's move on to a near and dear kind of topic to me. On your LinkedIn page, you list a specialty of understanding millennials. Talk to us a little bit about why this demographic is such a big deal. We hear it all the time, and I'm not sure everybody really understands why it's such a big deal. Then we can get into a little bit of how are their buying patterns different. What are they looking for? If people are in the business of building new homes or fixing and flipping properties, how should they be thinking about developing product for this very large and important group.
Ali Wolf:
Sure. Millennials are the largest living generation, which is why everyone's talking about them. You can look at the age range -- and it really varies depending on the source that you look at -- but generally a 19-year-old all the way up to 39-year-old will be part of the millennial group. You'll hear some that'll say 20 to 35, so it's right around that range that you're looking at. Besides being the largest living generation, they've become very strange to the generations before them because of all of the delayed life choices. Kids, buying a house, getting married. Where we are today, if you chart out millennials by age, the largest share of the largest living generation is 27 - 29 years old. All of those delayed life choices that they've been waiting on are finally triggering, or are already happening. When that occurs, you're talking to some builders that say a big percent of all of their buyers are millennials. Some are saying it's just increasing more and more year over year. It really varies on the market, on the price point, and on the product. One of the most frustrating things to me is saying every millennial wants walkability, every millennial wants experiences, every millennial wants avocado toast.
Matt Rodak:
I do like avocado toast.
Ali Wolf:
I do too, but my brother could not even imagine spending $5 on avocado toast. He wants Campbell's soup. When you think about this group as buyers, you have your share that are dying for a walkable community and want to walk to bars, but that's not the whole generation. If you can't build something around that stereotype, that's fine because there are still buyers who just want to own. Some people just want to become a homeowner. They haven't changed this idea of the American dream. Millennials will make compromises. Maybe they'll buy smaller, or they'll buy further out, or they'll buy an attached home. There's a lot of different things that millennials will do, and if it doesn't have every single bell and whistle on day one, for a large share of the buyers, that's okay. I think that's often misconstrued.
Matt Rodak:
I agree with you. I think the big thing here is it's a massive group of people that are finally coming into the time in their life where they're ready to buy. It's ages of 27-32, whereas before, it was 10 years before then. With that in mind, they're first time home buyers at that age as opposed to move up home buyers. So, I think what you're saying is it needs to be a first time home buyer product and price point. Whether that's in a community that's walkable and a smaller square foot space to get there from a price perspective, or maybe it is still your traditional white picket fence on half an acre or in a sub development. Regardless, the price has to be there as you'd expect it to be for a first time home buyer. Is that safe to say?
Ali Wolf:
That is, because they graduated and came into the economy at a fairly rough time. Their wage growth has been more stagnant than other generations. Of course, they have more student debt. So, price is going to be a big factor. For broad generalizations, most of the time the preference is for a single family detached. Most of the time the preference is for three bedrooms, and there is a bit of a mix between craftsmen and modern being two of the favorite styles. Now this is based on sample data that we've been tracking over the past few years. So there's a point where you say, I want a single family detached home, and then there's the reality of, "Oh, I need to do an attached home at 1200 square feet because that's all I can afford on day one."
Matt Rodak:
Let's talk about that affordability. I think it certainly applies to the millennials, but I think it extends beyond just that generation in terms of that we have people that want to own homes. We also have builders that have a hard time buying land and getting it entitled. We've seen wages increase, labor is hard to come by, and tariffs and supplies are getting more expensive. So, it's getting difficult to actually build new homes at a price point in a location where people want to buy. What are you guys seeing here? What are some of the more creative strategies or different ideas that people could be thinking about in terms of attacking this affordability problem?
Ali Wolf:
Sure. To wrap up the millennial discussion and segue into affordability, we created this millennial desirability index that pulls together job growth, cost of living, wage potential, quality of life, and affordable housing availability. We rolled all that up into an index. We basically chose those categories because every year when we surveyed millennials we say, "Have you seriously considered moving?" Almost 50% of my respondents said yes except for job opportunity or affordability, those were their two biggest things. Based on that statistic, we have Dallas, Houston, Austin, Phoenix, Denver -- to some extent, that was becoming quite expensive -- Orlando, and Jacksonville. Those are some of the top markets for relative desirability if a millennial is going to get up and switch. A Lot of that actually is driven by the affordability and the cost of living. When you look at affordability, I think a lot of people get trapped in saying -- I've pulled up the affordability index and we know LA, Seattle, San Francisco, DC, New York, Miami, we know those are expensive markets. It's fine, the affordability ratio is still really high in Charlotte, still really high in Raleigh, so that's where we need to go attack next. And Dallas too.
That leaves out that there are the lion's share of people in those areas grew up in Dallas or Raleigh or Charlotte, and those markets have become really, really expensive relative to themselves. That's something people really misunderstand about affordability, is that we have these other affordable markets. A lot of these markets went through bidding wars where people would pay $20,000 over asking price at a $200,000 base price. That all of a sudden starts to really put pressure on buyers. For creative ways to get out of it, increased density. But does that decrease desirability in some markets for some buyers? Yeah. Can you do prefab? Yes. We know Amazon is getting into it. We know Berkshire Hathaway with Clayton homes, they're involved in it. There are a lot of companies that are doing it, but is it easy to just change the strategy? Is it really going to save you a lot of money? Are there going to be some headaches from the buyers as they go? Do they want prefab? I think Clayton did a really good job -- have you seen their new advertisement that they've done?
Matt Rodak:
I have not.
Ali Wolf:
They just did a cool video where they just tried to say that prefab is cool, efficient, and fun. There's no stigma associated with it. Smaller homes -- but again, is it accepted? Do people want to give up square footage just be able to afford a home? In a lot of cases, yes. We've seen a big shift in the supply of homes. Back in 2000, 40% of all homes built were under 1800 square feet. Today it's 20%. Now, of course, you laid out all the reasons why it is so low -- if its lumber, if its labor, if its land -- there's all these different cost pressures. People have to be creative and have to think differently than they have in the past.
Matt Rodak:
This is probably more of an opinion question than a hard data question, but I'd be interested in your insights. I think we're going through a -- and this may have been what happened of towards the back half of last year -- a reset of expectations on what you can get for 'X' hundreds of thousands of dollars in any particular market, especially if you want new. That's what we're seeing now is people are coming to grips with that. If they've got a $300,000 budget in Charlotte that may have used to buy a 1800 square foot house, and now buys a 1500 square foot house. They're becoming okay with it. Do you think that's where this has gone? If we believe the new norm on the pricing side from a cost basis, and we believe there's still strong demand in the country to own homes, do you think we just have to go through maybe a period of expectation resetting where those two things can align and work for both parties?
Ali Wolf:
I think that's a really interesting point. I do think after years of the run up in prices, there probably was a point that people that were searching for homes that initially went out and said, "I have $300,000, I can get this!" And then they kind of get slapped with reality and they're like, "Oh, that's not actually what the market has." I do agree with you, but I do think what happened at the end of last year was a little bit damaging when builders needed to do incentives, and they either cut prices or they did these options and upgrades. What that did is reset our reset of expectations.
Matt Rodak:
Yep.
Ali Wolf:
Now people are saying, "What deal do you have for me? I hear the market's flowing. What can you do for me?" Right. I've been to a few communities in Seattle and here in California where people have said they started to see people come out asking for deals. Then we started seeing higher sales pace. When we did that, we got rid of our deals and then people came in and they were like, "I thought you were cutting prices?" So, they have now this push and pull of, can they raise prices? Will people accept it now that people think the market's flowing? I think it's a really interesting dynamic today.
Matt Rodak:
2019 will be a very interesting year, potentially, to see how things shake out given everything that you talked about in terms of how strong half of 2018 was, how the pullback of the back half was, and how we seem to be back on pace. It's going to be an interesting year, I think.
So, we're going to get you out of here on this. The theme of our show is Real Estate Investing Unscripted. We usually have a guest share a story of a deal or a project that had a 'gotcha' laced into it. For you, I'm going to switch it up a little bit because you're not actively operating real estate on a daily basis. But, along those lines, if there's one thing that's out there -- we've talked about a few of them already and I'm wondering if you have another -- one thing that's out there that's kind of a misunderstood data point, that people are leaning into, that the news is putting out there and that needs a little more context or needs to be peeled back a layer or two to really understand what that means. What is that and how should people be thinking about questioning what exactly that headline or statistic really means?
Ali Wolf:
I think that inflation is the data that's most misunderstood, but I don't necessarily think it's misunderstood from the media point of view. I actually think it's us economists that haven't realized that the world is changing and we haven't changed our formula. Same with GDP that's been around since 1930 this today. Does today's economy look anything like the 1930s? No, but we're still measuring it in a similar manner as we did. There's a lot of broad economic trends -- GDP, inflation, productivity -- that are trying to look at the economy the way it always has, and I don't think that's the best way. We'll be a little bit surprised... When you talk about inflation, remember, obviously it's a broad increase in prices. It's not that your favorite shoes are now more expensive. It needs to be that a whole bunch of things are more expensive. If we change the way that we measured inflation, we would see that a lot more out in today's market place than we'd expect. I think that could end up meaning pretty bad news for the economy if the Fed is unable to stay ahead of that.
Matt Rodak:
So we may not know what to look for to actually give us are leading or lagging indicators because we're still looking at things through a lens of an older economy, if you will. That's interesting.
Ali Wolf:
Pre-internet economy. Yeah.
Matt Rodak:
How do you measure a Google AdWords price increases?
Ali Wolf:
Exactly.
Matt Rodak:
This was awesome. This was super interesting, I really appreciate you coming on and sharing some things. If people want to get a hold of you or learn more about Meyers Research, what's the best way for that to happen?
Ali Wolf:
Our website is MeyersResearchLLC.com. My email is awolf@meyersllc.com. If you guys are on LinkedIn, I'm pretty active. I share a lot of my research. so feel free to find me on there, Ali Wolf.
Matt Rodak:
So checkout Ali Wolf on LinkedIn. Also, I do read your blog posts, by the way, so check out MeyersResearchLLC.com. Ali is putting out some great content around all of this stuff in real time and how to make sense of what's happening, at least at a macro level. This was awesome. I'm going to try to summarize some of the key points that I had. I think the big three were don't just read the headlines, you need to understand some context. I loved your point around inventory is up 20%. It went from one month to 1.2 months. We're still somewhat under supplied. Along those lines, the data also needs to be local to you. Just because The Journal or someone else is putting out a massive headline about good things or bad things -- I think we all know this -- but real estate tends to be a very local market. Pay attention to that. Then, I liked your indicators, leading and lagging. Specifically, we hear these things that are out there all the time and those are more lagging indicators. Let's pay attention to the things that are leading indicators, and you gave us some good ones. Awesome stuff. Anything else you would like to close us out with?
Ali Wolf:
No, just thank you so much for having me.
Matt Rodak:
Awesome. So thank you Ali, and thank you all out there for listening to this episode of Real Estate Investing Unscripted. For more great resources or to get funding for your next project, be sure to head on over to FundThatFlip.com. Otherwise, I look forward to next time. Your host, Matt Rodak, signing off.
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